Atlas on Waste Management and Climate Change Mitigation: Focus on Integrating Waste Initiatives into NDCs

This publication focuses on countries within the scope of intervention of the French Development Agency
(AFD), which has provided the source material presented in Annex 3, supporting this report. It highlights the critical role that solid waste management can play in achieving global climate objectives, particularly through its inclusion in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While the waste sector is directly responsible for only 3 to 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a 100-year period calculation basis, its indirect mitigation potential is significantly higher—up to 20% when accounting for avoided emissions through prevention, recycling, and energy recovery. This potential remains largely underutilized in national climate strategies.

Current trends point to a sharp increase in waste related emissions unless urgent action is taken. By 2050, global waste generation is expected to rise by over 70% since 2016, driven by population growth and economic development. Waste production is closely correlated with GDP per capita, with the sharpest increases expected in low- and middle-income countries. Without significant investment in waste systems, these regions risk a dramatic surge in methane emissions, mainly from unmanaged organic waste and poor landfilling practices.

Despite these stakes, the waste sector remains insufficiently represented in climate policies, though a positive trend is visible, with many more countries including waste in their NDCs between 2020 and 2025. In the revised NDCs in 2025, more than half of the countries reference solid waste in their NDCs. However, most do not specify actions, targets, or indicators. Waste prevention, though the most impactful strategy, is mentioned in only 34% of the NDCs reviewed.